The Odds

Recently I wrote about lottery odds, which are abysmally bad. In fact, the odds of getting the grand prize in either Mega Million or Powerball hover around 175,000,000 to one.  This got me to thinking about other odds.

Here, according to a variety of sources, among them the Center for Disease Control, the World Health Organization, the Red Cross, and the National Safety Council,  are some death-related odds for U.S. residents:

Cause of Death	Lifetime Odds
Heart Disease	1-in-5
Cancer	1-in-7
Stroke	1-in-23
Accidental Injury	1-in-36
Motor Vehicle Accident	1-in-100
Intentional Self-harm (suicide)	1-in-121
Falling Down	1-in-246
Assault by Firearm	1-in-325
Fire or Smoke	1-in-1,116
Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.)	1-in-3,357
Electrocution	1-in-5,000
Drowning	1-in-8,942
Air Travel Accident	1-in-20,000
Flood (included also in Natural Forces above)	1-in-30,000
Legal Execution	1-in-58,618
Tornado (included also in Natural Forces above)	1-in-60,000
Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above)	1-in-83,930
Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting	1-in-100,000
Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above)	1-in-131,890
Asteroid Impact	1-in-500,000
Tsunami	1-in-500,000
Fireworks Discharge	1-in-615,488

There are, of course, caveats.  Risks to infants are, for example, different from those to senior citizens. The statistics, according to Livescience.com, “are typically given for a person born in the year the numbers are crunched.” By the time this person reaches adulthood, “the outlook will have changed because of medical advances, diet shifts, changes to the environment, and so on.”

Theweek.com tells us that we are more likely to be crushed by a vending machine (1 in 112 million) than we are of winning the Powerball jackpot (1 in 175 million). We might die of dog bites (1 in 144,899), in a train crash (1 in 156,169) or from a hospital infection (1 in 38). We also have a better chance of being elected President (1 in 10 million) or of being born with an extra finger or toe (1 in 500). Then of course there are the odds of becoming a movie star (1 in 1,505,000), getting attacked by a shark (1 in 11.5 million), or being killed by a mountain lion in California (1 in 36 million). There’s always the danger of death while using a right-handed product incorrectly if you are left-handed (1 in 4.4 million) and you have a much better chance of being canonized (1 in 20 million) than winning the biggie Mega Million.

Here, though, is a bit of good news: you are more likely to win the jackpot than you are of being killed by a falling coconut (1 in 250 million).

That’s reassuring. Go thee forth and play.